Big Picture's posterous - helping to quiet down the voices in my head . . .

July 5, 2008

Barron's RoundUp: The Bear's Back

The Bear's Back
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121512473043028031.html

End of an Era
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121512484846628107.html

The Bear Arrives -- With Bargain Hunters
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121512457376427985.html

Falling Markets' Nastiest Habit
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121512487072628141.html

Jobs Data Show a Slow Leak
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121512495222528157.html

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July 5, 2008

Which costs more, the car or the gasoline?

Gas Was Once a Bigger Expense

FLOYD NORRIS

NYT: July 5, 2008

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/05/business/05chart.html

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July 5, 2008

Housing & Consumer Spending

The Economist:

"The first channel is through lower residential investment. Housing starts fell by 24% in the first quarter when set against the same period in 2007 and things have got worse since then. Kate Barker, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, recently said that the probable decline this year would be on a much bigger scale than in the slump of the early 1990s. The likely fall in investment could slice over a percentage point off GDP growth in both 2008 and 2009, according to Ben Broadbent, an economist at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank.

A second way in which the housing slump will hurt the economy is by slashing the demand for consumer goods linked to property transactions. When people move they typically borrow some extra money to pay for equipment to kit out their new home. That source of demand will take a big knock, since the turnover of homes may fall by 30-40% this year. The effect, estimates Mr Miles, could reduce GDP growth by a further 0.2-0.3%.

The third route is through the decline in property wealth, and this is a matter of considerable controversy. For many years it was taken for granted that there was a strong relationship between house prices and consumer spending (see chart). More recently the Bank of England has cast doubt on the link. "

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=11671702

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July 4, 2008

Global Warming? What Evidence Do You Have?

I'm no expert, but it certainly appears that global temperatures are rising . . .

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Global Air Temperature

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/pollack.html

Mountain Glacier Fluctuations

http://nsidc.org/sotc/glacier_balance.html

Sea Ice Decline Intensifies

http://nsidc.org/news/press/20050928_trendscontinue.html

sea level change

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

Proxy Temperature Studies

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/paleolast.html

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July 4, 2008

Random Linkage

Some random holiday weekend linkage from the preceding week . . .

INVESTING & TRADING

Markets calling Bernanke's bluff

http://www.reuters.com/article/stocksNews/idUKGRI22546420080702

Lessons to be learnt from the financial crisis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddea2c54-478b-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html

Stock Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/03/stock-market-performance-round-up-nowhere-to-hide/

Rules to Keep Your Skin in Wall Street Massacre: Michael Lewis

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aH545r_muZkU&

China to tighten capital controls in clampdown on 'hot money'

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff4b6d3c-4898-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html

Defending the Maginot Line

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/07/defending-maginot-line.html

Straight-talk on FAS 157: Blackstone and their Banker Buddies Have it Wrong

http://www.informationarbitrage.com/2008/07/getting-it-wron.html

European Banks May Need EU90 Billion, Goldman Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abu_8cEXAsLI&

How Lehman lost its way

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/02/news/companies/lehman_sloan_boyd.fortune/index.htm

Lehman's Hedge-Fund Deals Leave Public in Dark:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aYbKSTZ5ZYpM&refer=home

Smackdown: Footnoted vs Seeking Alpha

http://www.footnoted.org/blog-notes/a-footnoted-soapbox/

ECONOMY

States Going From Bad to Worse

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/07/01/states-going-from-bad-to-worse/

The Economy? Words Fail Me.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR2008070303317.html

Economists React: ‘Consistent Picture of Weakness’ on Jobs

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/07/03/economists-react-consistent-picture-of-weakness-on-jobs/

Stay-at-Home Grillers on July 4th Still Pay More

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.sRul2J3EY4&

U.S. Auto Sales Plunge to 10-Year Lows

http://bigpicture.posterous.com/us-auto-sales-plunge-to-10-yea

FEDERAL RESERVE

Are Trichet's Rate Hikes 1930 All Over Again?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/are-trichets-rate-hikes-1930-all-over.html

ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet, says inflation could 'explode'

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4258055.ece

HOUSING

Housing market seen getting worse

http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSN0244780820080703

L.A Foreclosures Quadruple, Miami Doubles, Corporate Bankruptcies Soar

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/la-foreclosures-quadruple-miami-doubles.html

Overdue Home-Equity Credit Lines Rise Most Since 1987

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a845eJv5.wNU

Housing Industry Ramps Up Political Donations

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121521734397329617.html

Analyst sees 'ghost town' in Inland Empire

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/07/analyst-sees-gh.html

Loan Delinquencies Increase; Trend Likely to Continue

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/07/02/loan-delinquencies-increase-trend-likely-to-continue/

ENERGY/WAR

50 Things Being Blamed on Rising Oil Prices

http://blogs.wsj.com/buzzwatch/2008/07/03/idea-watch-50-things-being-blamed-on-rising-oil-prices/

American Energy Policy, Asleep at the Spigot

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/06/business/06oil.html

What China’s Stock Market Implosion Means For Oil

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/what-chinas-stock-market-implosion-means-for-oil-1776.html

MEDIA/POLITICS

How the Rich Would Fare Under Obama, McCain

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/07/02/how-the-rich-would-fare-under-obama-mccain/

For Republicans, the Senate outlook is bad

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-senate6-2008jul06,0,1446447.story

McCain Allies FindFinance-Law Holes

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121503532000824249.html

TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE

Recessions are Good for Google, Yahoo and Wikipedia

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/07/02/recessions_are.html

Assuring Scarcity / Fear of Abundance

http://www.frankston.com/public/?name=AssuringScarcity

Hologram Google Earth

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2008/07/hologram_google_earth.html

Ultimate Water Gun Battlemodo Royale

http://gizmodo.com/5021424/gizmodos-ultimate-water-gun-battlemodo-royale

That's all from what may be a rainy holiday weekend in the NorthEast.

~~~

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July 3, 2008